* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/01/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 70 83 95 100 105 104 105 106 111 106 109 106 106 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 70 83 95 100 105 104 105 106 111 106 109 106 106 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 55 62 77 90 98 99 96 96 99 99 98 99 98 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 6 8 3 11 15 12 12 11 15 19 18 15 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 3 1 4 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -7 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 104 72 42 31 81 64 70 37 20 344 323 297 290 272 204 205 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.3 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 132 129 128 131 130 127 127 135 136 139 146 157 159 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 132 132 129 128 130 127 123 123 129 126 128 134 141 137 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 9 8 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 73 69 66 63 52 49 43 47 48 51 55 58 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 26 30 31 35 34 36 34 35 36 40 39 42 42 45 850 MB ENV VOR 109 104 105 104 106 111 132 153 151 128 123 96 71 61 53 45 31 200 MB DIV 33 25 70 88 95 126 135 83 -13 -3 -6 7 18 39 51 66 29 700-850 TADV -13 -11 -15 -17 -21 -15 -16 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 2 4 12 13 9 LAND (KM) 1032 1199 1368 1528 1689 1840 1700 1585 1538 1510 1554 1519 1485 1396 1344 1402 1517 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.8 20.4 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.7 28.3 29.9 31.4 33.0 36.1 39.2 41.8 43.9 46.4 49.0 50.9 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 16 15 15 12 13 14 13 11 10 12 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 6 5 17 12 10 16 21 29 27 30 30 40 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 13. 16. 13. 14. 14. 19. 16. 19. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 30. 43. 55. 60. 65. 64. 65. 66. 71. 66. 69. 66. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 26.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/01/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 29.6% 19.6% 8.7% 8.0% 17.6% 23.3% 23.7% Logistic: 18.2% 37.9% 26.5% 12.7% 6.5% 7.8% 4.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 8.2% 25.8% 10.4% 1.7% 2.5% 8.9% 20.8% 4.8% Consensus: 11.4% 31.1% 18.9% 7.7% 5.7% 11.4% 16.2% 9.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/01/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 9( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 60 70 83 95 100 105 104 105 106 111 106 109 106 106 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 63 76 88 93 98 97 98 99 104 99 102 99 99 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 53 66 78 83 88 87 88 89 94 89 92 89 89 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 40 53 65 70 75 74 75 76 81 76 79 76 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT