* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122021 09/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 45 51 65 78 91 99 104 105 106 104 105 106 105 102 V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 45 51 65 78 91 99 104 105 106 104 105 106 105 102 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 38 42 54 68 82 90 89 85 85 84 83 83 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 9 5 6 6 9 13 13 17 16 23 22 17 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 -1 2 1 0 2 5 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 32 51 71 126 124 75 104 72 82 44 10 350 307 289 278 237 203 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 135 136 139 133 132 130 124 123 127 130 135 141 148 149 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 135 136 139 133 132 128 119 118 121 122 125 128 133 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 77 76 75 72 68 64 60 51 46 45 46 51 54 55 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 22 23 28 30 34 36 36 35 35 34 37 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 109 94 110 106 111 104 117 133 156 160 141 122 92 72 54 46 55 200 MB DIV 88 48 55 51 90 89 115 120 98 59 53 9 12 37 41 50 43 700-850 TADV -12 -12 -9 -6 -9 -13 -12 -10 0 -4 -4 1 4 8 11 16 10 LAND (KM) 599 777 960 1132 1306 1632 1903 1848 1743 1681 1647 1696 1751 1718 1698 1632 1537 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.6 17.8 19.3 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.3 24.2 26.1 27.8 29.4 32.5 35.4 38.1 40.4 42.7 44.9 46.9 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 16 15 15 15 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 10 10 7 17 19 7 13 18 21 23 23 24 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 22. 21. 20. 17. 19. 21. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 15. 21. 35. 48. 61. 69. 74. 75. 76. 74. 75. 76. 75. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 22.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 TWELVE 09/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.1% 11.7% 7.6% 7.0% 10.2% 13.6% 25.9% Logistic: 10.0% 38.4% 21.6% 9.3% 7.4% 13.8% 7.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.5% 26.2% 5.7% 0.6% 0.5% 4.6% 9.8% 4.0% Consensus: 6.2% 28.2% 13.0% 5.8% 5.0% 9.5% 10.2% 10.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 TWELVE 09/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 39 45 51 65 78 91 99 104 105 106 104 105 106 105 102 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 61 74 87 95 100 101 102 100 101 102 101 98 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 52 65 78 86 91 92 93 91 92 93 92 89 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 40 53 66 74 79 80 81 79 80 81 80 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT