* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122021 08/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 60 74 88 98 104 105 104 107 108 106 105 102 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 60 74 88 98 104 105 104 107 108 106 105 102 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 37 41 52 65 80 91 93 90 86 84 83 82 80 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 13 8 16 11 12 14 14 16 15 18 25 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -4 0 -4 0 4 3 6 1 3 9 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 33 35 45 55 64 52 62 47 60 59 45 13 350 302 288 274 242 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 138 137 133 133 130 126 124 129 129 132 141 149 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 138 138 137 133 132 129 124 120 121 120 123 131 136 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 83 79 81 81 80 74 68 66 60 50 44 43 47 51 52 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 18 19 22 26 29 33 35 36 36 34 34 36 38 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 119 107 96 105 110 103 102 126 127 149 149 132 97 78 83 74 55 200 MB DIV 88 68 54 48 67 78 106 86 143 96 90 36 9 6 54 41 23 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -10 -8 -10 -7 -7 -17 -6 -1 -3 -1 1 6 8 6 6 LAND (KM) 402 576 763 965 1173 1463 1740 1814 1771 1661 1583 1618 1755 1812 1690 1599 1631 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.3 13.0 14.0 15.2 16.5 18.0 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.2 22.0 23.8 25.8 27.9 30.7 33.4 36.3 38.6 41.2 44.0 45.8 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 20 17 13 14 13 13 15 13 10 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 11 13 14 8 7 18 18 7 11 25 22 22 23 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 17. 21. 22. 22. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 30. 44. 58. 68. 74. 75. 74. 77. 78. 76. 75. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 20.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 TWELVE 08/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.9% 11.1% 7.2% 6.6% 9.6% 11.6% 15.5% Logistic: 7.7% 41.3% 20.0% 8.0% 10.0% 19.4% 21.2% 8.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 17.1% 4.0% 0.3% 0.2% 4.1% 6.9% 14.1% Consensus: 4.9% 25.4% 11.7% 5.2% 5.6% 11.0% 13.2% 12.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 TWELVE 08/31/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 48 60 74 88 98 104 105 104 107 108 106 105 102 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 44 56 70 84 94 100 101 100 103 104 102 101 98 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 49 63 77 87 93 94 93 96 97 95 94 91 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 38 52 66 76 82 83 82 85 86 84 83 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT