* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 61 63 64 67 73 71 68 59 50 42 35 29 26 40 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 61 63 64 67 73 71 68 59 50 42 35 29 26 40 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 61 62 63 65 70 75 70 58 49 46 45 44 44 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 26 21 18 14 7 6 6 6 10 21 27 29 27 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 4 2 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 27 28 29 24 5 348 353 108 92 207 196 194 195 219 232 263 278 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.5 25.8 22.2 20.7 20.2 19.2 20.7 20.0 19.3 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 154 152 153 148 145 112 86 78 78 76 83 80 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 130 129 127 130 128 122 93 73 68 69 69 74 72 70 68 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 7 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 54 58 63 68 67 69 68 70 66 60 54 48 39 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 20 20 22 27 26 23 19 15 13 11 9 8 22 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -44 -46 -50 -32 -23 -17 -12 -21 -7 7 14 10 27 79 71 35 200 MB DIV 8 18 -6 -7 27 20 48 24 24 24 -5 18 18 27 20 -3 -5 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -7 -2 -2 6 14 2 0 0 1 5 5 0 12 -7 -60 LAND (KM) 846 786 730 660 591 461 372 407 274 123 63 131 162 170 176 230 167 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.4 31.9 34.3 37.0 39.2 40.7 41.4 41.9 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.8 71.7 72.3 72.9 72.9 72.0 70.8 69.7 69.3 69.3 68.4 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 10 14 13 10 6 4 6 10 13 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 26 24 25 29 28 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 7. 5. 2. -6. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 11. 8. -1. -10. -18. -25. -31. -34. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.5 70.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.9% 9.0% 6.9% 6.1% 8.3% 8.5% 8.6% Logistic: 4.1% 10.9% 6.4% 3.9% 4.1% 5.5% 4.2% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 8.6% 5.2% 3.6% 3.4% 4.6% 4.3% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/19/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 61 63 64 67 73 71 68 59 50 42 35 29 26 40 18HR AGO 60 59 59 59 61 62 65 71 69 66 57 48 40 33 27 24 38 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 59 62 68 66 63 54 45 37 30 24 21 35 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 53 56 62 60 57 48 39 31 24 18 15 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT