* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 38 44 47 54 55 62 65 70 75 77 77 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 30 29 34 36 39 39 44 52 55 60 65 66 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 27 27 31 31 32 30 36 41 44 47 52 56 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 10 11 16 13 15 3 16 10 16 11 18 12 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 1 5 3 -1 0 5 3 2 6 -3 3 -3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 302 305 318 291 262 287 285 331 346 2 360 1 329 345 314 351 317 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 29.0 29.6 29.3 30.2 29.9 30.3 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 152 163 158 173 170 173 163 168 171 171 170 169 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 139 146 157 152 171 165 170 150 152 158 163 160 155 150 144 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 9 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 56 56 55 61 58 60 58 59 57 54 56 62 64 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 8 10 9 10 8 12 10 9 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 6 13 18 -12 -16 -44 -35 -47 -43 -41 -9 -8 15 1 -3 200 MB DIV 42 38 44 43 38 18 7 0 34 19 14 25 9 -7 8 -1 36 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -8 -9 -14 -19 -17 -24 -23 -32 -20 -21 -15 -12 -12 -21 -4 LAND (KM) 128 99 71 -26 -4 39 33 69 -18 220 281 387 484 327 211 135 105 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.5 23.4 24.1 24.6 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.1 69.2 70.3 71.4 72.5 74.8 77.7 80.6 83.8 86.4 88.4 90.4 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 11 10 9 9 7 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 62 46 28 27 37 43 71 70 94 57 40 50 66 69 50 40 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -2. -5. -4. -8. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 14. 17. 24. 25. 32. 35. 40. 45. 47. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 68.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.3% 9.6% 6.4% 6.0% 8.6% 10.6% 15.6% Logistic: 9.3% 25.8% 15.6% 12.9% 8.1% 17.9% 33.8% 38.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 10.8% 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.3% 1.1% Consensus: 5.3% 17.3% 9.6% 6.5% 4.8% 9.2% 15.6% 18.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 30 29 34 36 39 39 44 52 55 60 65 66 67 66 18HR AGO 30 29 31 28 27 32 34 37 37 42 50 53 58 63 64 65 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 22 27 29 32 32 37 45 48 53 58 59 60 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 24 26 29 29 34 42 45 50 55 56 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT