* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072021 08/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 51 57 62 63 68 68 72 72 76 76 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 51 47 36 36 41 41 44 44 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 42 34 35 37 40 42 46 43 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 5 4 6 14 7 11 11 17 14 22 17 19 9 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -3 -2 2 0 4 1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 312 301 301 267 294 271 305 291 326 346 6 13 11 332 319 294 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.4 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.7 29.7 30.7 31.0 30.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 142 145 143 142 145 143 154 156 154 165 164 171 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 141 142 145 143 140 141 138 147 147 144 155 151 164 165 162 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 55 58 63 71 71 67 65 65 64 66 64 66 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 10 11 8 9 7 7 5 6 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -36 -32 -29 -15 -6 13 13 16 6 13 -19 7 -11 6 -25 11 200 MB DIV 3 8 28 39 30 39 81 75 47 16 35 1 20 -12 13 0 11 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -8 -6 -4 -10 -8 -12 -11 -10 -14 -10 -7 -5 -6 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1033 869 733 660 617 268 21 -11 -77 48 30 69 123 48 -7 21 73 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.7 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.7 54.7 56.7 58.4 60.2 63.5 66.4 69.0 71.6 73.7 75.7 77.9 80.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 17 16 13 13 12 11 12 13 11 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 43 58 33 30 50 29 26 40 48 44 73 53 65 61 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -9. -9. -12. -11. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 21. 27. 32. 33. 38. 38. 42. 42. 46. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 52.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 SEVEN 08/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 21.3% 12.0% 8.0% 7.4% 10.2% 16.9% 31.3% Logistic: 10.9% 48.9% 36.5% 17.5% 10.7% 29.2% 32.4% 48.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 35.3% 8.7% 0.6% 0.4% 5.8% 13.6% 25.5% Consensus: 6.2% 35.2% 19.1% 8.7% 6.2% 15.1% 21.0% 35.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 SEVEN 08/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 SEVEN 08/14/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 43 51 47 36 36 41 41 44 44 41 42 45 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 48 44 33 33 38 38 41 41 38 39 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 43 39 28 28 33 33 36 36 33 34 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 34 30 19 19 24 24 27 27 24 25 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT