* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 43 51 52 53 50 48 47 48 46 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 43 51 46 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 35 38 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 17 19 19 11 18 17 20 24 28 30 29 23 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 -7 0 -6 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 270 252 254 253 234 249 224 251 234 249 242 273 270 297 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.5 30.5 29.8 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 164 166 164 171 171 171 171 168 170 170 164 158 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 150 151 149 164 161 155 147 140 146 147 132 126 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 7 4 8 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 68 67 63 67 63 68 68 73 66 69 65 69 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 7 9 8 11 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -18 -4 4 -10 5 -14 12 5 17 -32 -22 -71 -46 -66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 17 25 40 -10 26 20 27 50 28 22 26 9 35 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -1 -5 -13 -7 -1 -3 9 5 11 7 10 -2 11 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 51 33 64 68 62 95 88 -8 -105 -224 -368 -522 -529 -507 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.2 28.2 29.8 31.2 32.3 33.6 35.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.2 77.3 78.3 79.1 80.0 81.6 82.9 83.7 85.0 85.7 85.8 85.7 85.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 7 6 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 47 44 56 71 55 48 37 30 5 5 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. -0. 3. -0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 21. 22. 23. 20. 19. 17. 18. 16. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.8 76.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.6% 8.0% 5.7% 4.9% 7.8% 9.1% 11.9% Logistic: 1.5% 7.1% 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 9.0% 19.1% 28.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 6.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 5.6% 9.5% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/13/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 39 43 51 46 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 37 41 49 44 33 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 36 44 39 28 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 29 37 32 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT