* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062021 08/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 38 41 48 47 50 49 55 64 70 70 72 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 31 29 34 41 40 43 42 48 57 63 63 46 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 29 28 32 33 35 36 38 41 45 50 52 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 18 20 17 16 14 21 21 19 22 15 19 13 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -5 -3 -5 -2 0 -6 -1 -4 0 -6 2 -6 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 299 303 279 283 295 292 300 258 276 253 249 234 256 233 261 247 259 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.9 29.9 30.5 30.8 30.9 29.7 29.5 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 152 150 147 152 154 168 168 171 170 169 162 159 164 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 150 149 146 140 144 143 156 154 161 161 159 138 135 141 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 57 58 63 63 66 66 69 66 68 67 67 68 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 9 8 7 6 7 5 7 6 8 11 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 34 31 22 24 -12 0 -23 -11 -35 -1 -35 -14 -42 -6 -14 200 MB DIV 22 26 22 1 10 24 -1 18 0 12 25 36 20 41 4 47 26 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 5 7 4 -1 -11 -6 -11 -3 -7 -1 0 4 8 7 LAND (KM) 371 207 78 27 -15 -33 68 44 45 92 47 80 71 98 75 -100 -309 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.7 25.1 26.3 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 64.6 66.0 67.4 68.8 71.4 73.8 76.0 78.0 79.9 81.6 82.8 83.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 54 70 47 32 20 35 49 44 52 52 52 44 30 33 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -8. -11. -10. -12. -10. -7. -4. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 11. 18. 17. 20. 19. 25. 34. 40. 40. 42. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 63.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.6% 9.6% 6.7% 5.9% 8.5% 10.2% 12.1% Logistic: 6.4% 13.6% 12.4% 6.0% 1.3% 6.3% 6.8% 12.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.2% 4.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 4.8% 9.8% 8.9% 4.3% 2.4% 5.3% 5.8% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 SIX 08/10/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 34 31 29 34 41 40 43 42 48 57 63 63 46 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 28 26 31 38 37 40 39 45 54 60 60 43 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 23 21 26 33 32 35 34 40 49 55 55 38 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 15 20 27 26 29 28 34 43 49 49 32 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT