* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062021 08/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 45 50 54 57 55 57 57 63 66 68 72 73 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 45 41 38 41 40 41 42 47 51 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 44 40 37 38 40 42 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 10 12 15 17 19 13 22 17 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -5 -6 -1 -7 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 333 308 314 319 293 300 293 293 273 273 272 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.8 29.8 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 147 147 149 154 150 152 154 155 165 165 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 147 147 147 152 145 145 144 143 150 147 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 57 58 60 63 66 68 68 72 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 37 30 30 31 26 5 -5 -11 -9 -15 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 26 39 17 14 3 31 7 4 8 11 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 7 10 7 4 13 -4 0 -14 -4 -13 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 423 424 492 398 238 54 -43 4 23 42 57 95 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.6 60.1 61.5 62.9 64.3 67.2 70.0 72.2 74.6 76.6 78.2 79.6 80.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 15 14 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 31 29 28 46 56 26 27 41 44 44 48 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 24. 27. 25. 27. 27. 33. 36. 38. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 58.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 SIX 08/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.6% 11.0% 7.4% 6.6% 9.9% 12.7% 14.8% Logistic: 8.0% 17.3% 21.2% 13.1% 1.7% 7.5% 5.6% 7.0% Bayesian: 3.2% 26.6% 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 8.7% 21.2% 1.6% Consensus: 5.9% 20.5% 14.1% 7.0% 2.9% 8.7% 13.2% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 SIX 08/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 SIX 08/09/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 45 41 38 41 40 41 42 47 51 53 56 57 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 41 37 34 37 36 37 38 43 47 49 52 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 35 31 28 31 30 31 32 37 41 43 46 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 22 19 22 21 22 23 28 32 34 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT