* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/05/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 59 59 62 66 69 71 71 66 60 53 52 53 V (KT) LAND 55 47 42 47 48 51 51 35 30 28 33 33 28 24 16 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 55 48 43 48 49 50 50 35 30 28 35 40 42 41 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 21 19 12 14 12 15 12 17 26 29 42 50 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 5 0 0 -2 4 3 0 2 4 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 280 273 266 284 260 269 253 232 245 234 250 254 243 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.8 30.1 29.0 29.1 28.3 28.5 27.6 27.9 26.1 24.1 21.4 15.1 9.7 10.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 152 154 141 144 133 138 117 102 90 76 72 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 170 172 158 137 139 125 126 118 122 103 91 83 73 71 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 5 3 5 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 58 58 61 63 66 70 73 77 78 73 66 62 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 14 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 15 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -45 -58 -53 -59 -44 -64 -37 -26 29 70 88 79 79 73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 49 24 18 49 50 23 50 29 84 56 96 58 51 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 11 16 26 14 12 19 39 33 35 51 -13 -32 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 56 -24 -2 110 193 107 47 -95 -55 -37 218 237 141 23 803 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.1 24.0 24.9 27.0 29.1 31.3 33.8 36.0 37.8 40.4 43.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.5 82.2 82.7 83.2 83.6 83.6 82.5 79.5 76.2 72.7 67.7 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 15 18 17 20 27 33 37 38 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 73 71 76 28 19 13 20 2 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 11. 5. -2. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.5 80.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.41 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.8% 9.2% 6.6% 6.0% 9.1% 10.3% 10.9% Logistic: 2.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.8% 0.8% 3.4% 2.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.8% 3.9% 2.8% 2.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/05/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 47 42 47 48 51 51 35 30 28 33 33 28 24 16 16 16 18HR AGO 55 54 49 54 55 58 58 42 37 35 40 40 35 31 23 23 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 57 60 60 44 39 37 42 42 37 33 25 25 25 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 49 49 33 28 26 31 31 26 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT