* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP212020 11/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 14 8 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 6 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 269 267 286 296 264 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 118 118 123 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 43 44 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -29 -35 -38 -42 -45 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -47 -72 -61 -38 -42 -15 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 6 5 8 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1157 1233 1313 1398 1485 1708 1911 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 16.8 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.9 121.9 123.0 124.0 126.6 129.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -20. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -22. -18. -17. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 119.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212020 POLO 11/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212020 POLO 11/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##