* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP212020 11/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 42 40 35 31 28 26 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 42 40 35 31 28 26 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 43 41 35 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 13 15 18 14 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 8 6 3 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 247 255 261 268 269 290 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 135 131 128 126 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 53 51 46 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -40 -34 -34 -37 -42 -44 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 14 7 -23 -59 -58 -19 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 6 4 4 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 997 1059 1115 1168 1305 1468 1633 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.5 117.5 118.6 119.6 121.7 123.8 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212020 POLO 11/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 19.3% 15.9% 11.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 9.4% 6.1% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 9.6% 7.3% 5.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212020 POLO 11/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##