* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 63 63 62 62 61 61 64 69 73 79 80 81 78 78 79 V (KT) LAND 75 54 42 36 32 33 32 31 35 40 44 49 51 51 48 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 75 53 41 35 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 10 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 79 98 106 125 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 150 152 148 138 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 147 149 145 134 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 17 15 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 177 196 173 141 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 110 105 83 53 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 3 2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -141 -206 -131 -67 -65 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.8 86.8 87.8 88.8 90.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 9 10 12 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -11. -14. -14. -12. -6. -5. -6. -5. -1. 2. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -11. -6. -2. 4. 5. 6. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.7 84.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -55.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 22.8% 58.0% 13.8% 5.8% 6.7% 17.7% 15.3% 27.9% Consensus: 7.6% 19.7% 4.7% 2.0% 2.4% 8.1% 5.4% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 54 42 36 32 33 32 31 35 40 44 49 51 51 48 48 50 18HR AGO 75 74 62 56 52 53 52 51 55 60 64 69 71 71 68 68 70 12HR AGO 75 72 71 65 61 62 61 60 64 69 73 78 80 80 77 77 79 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 62 61 60 64 69 73 78 80 80 77 77 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT