* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 137 133 127 121 110 100 92 88 84 82 83 84 87 87 89 88 V (KT) LAND 140 103 71 52 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 106 72 51 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 14 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 88 71 78 104 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.2 29.3 28.9 29.1 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 154 156 150 153 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 150 153 147 150 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 77 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 23 19 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 125 157 192 213 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 145 118 129 148 154 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 43 -49 -141 -210 -139 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 84.0 84.8 85.8 86.8 88.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 31 6 6 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -10. -20. -33. -43. -52. -59. -62. -65. -68. -71. -72. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -10. -6. -1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. -32. -32. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -19. -30. -40. -48. -52. -56. -58. -57. -56. -53. -53. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.6 83.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/17/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 0( 54) 0( 54) 0( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 0( 63) 0( 63) 0( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 103 71 52 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 107 88 77 67 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 12HR AGO 140 137 136 117 106 96 93 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 119 109 106 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 111 108 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 IN 6HR 140 103 94 88 85 80 77 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT