* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 146 143 135 126 113 103 89 70 63 53 52 56 62 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 140 146 143 108 74 42 32 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 17 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 140 147 141 109 74 41 31 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 16 16 11 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 72 91 90 86 106 134 187 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 146 152 154 149 149 138 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 140 146 148 143 143 132 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 73 73 78 77 80 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 31 27 20 15 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 94 114 133 153 199 160 110 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 157 165 121 99 90 75 29 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 110 39 -38 -119 -186 -102 -62 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.4 83.1 83.9 84.6 86.1 87.7 89.1 90.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 28 31 8 5 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -11. -22. -36. -48. -58. -65. -68. -71. -75. -77. -79. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -10. -3. 1. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 9. 8. 4. 1. -0. 2. 4. -0. -2. -9. -11. -8. -4. -3. -6. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -5. -12. -21. -30. -36. -38. -40. -41. -41. -40. -39. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 3. -5. -14. -27. -37. -51. -70. -77. -87. -88. -84. -78. -75. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.5 81.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 54.4% 57.5% 40.1% 30.6% 14.7% 15.3% 11.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.1% 20.0% 13.6% 10.2% 4.9% 5.1% 3.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 64( 83) 0( 83) 0( 83) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 76 76( 94) 0( 94) 0( 94) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 146 143 108 74 42 32 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 140 139 136 101 67 35 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 140 137 136 101 67 35 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 96 64 54 50 44 37 22 22 22 22 39 40 40 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 89 79 75 69 62 47 47 47 47 64 65 65 IN 6HR 140 146 137 131 128 116 106 102 96 89 74 74 74 74 91 92 92 IN 12HR 140 146 143 134 128 124 114 110 104 97 82 82 82 82 99 100 100