* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 94 101 106 106 100 93 88 82 74 73 74 78 80 82 83 V (KT) LAND 80 88 94 101 106 86 47 33 29 27 24 23 24 28 30 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 95 100 103 85 47 33 29 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 5 9 11 10 8 6 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 2 2 3 0 -3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 191 178 124 81 91 107 76 68 36 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.2 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 148 152 153 149 149 138 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 146 142 142 145 146 142 142 132 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 69 72 75 77 76 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 32 34 32 26 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 93 95 99 129 158 187 166 131 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 119 110 109 128 98 86 82 85 78 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 2 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 405 388 299 211 123 -23 -153 -196 -84 -46 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.7 80.5 81.3 82.1 83.6 84.9 86.2 87.6 89.0 90.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 51 41 28 25 30 4 4 13 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -6. -14. -20. -26. -32. -33. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 26. 26. 20. 13. 8. 2. -6. -7. -6. -2. -0. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.2 78.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.9% 57.9% 45.3% 32.8% 25.7% 31.2% 22.3% 16.6% Logistic: 45.8% 68.1% 54.2% 50.7% 32.9% 31.0% 18.4% 13.0% Bayesian: 63.2% 82.2% 77.8% 56.4% 42.7% 64.1% 13.8% 8.0% Consensus: 48.0% 69.4% 59.1% 46.6% 33.8% 42.1% 18.2% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 16( 22) 27( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 55 65( 84) 37( 90) 0( 90) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 88 94 101 106 86 47 33 29 27 24 23 24 28 30 32 33 18HR AGO 80 79 85 92 97 77 38 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 83 88 68 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 75 55 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 88 79 73 70 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 88 94 85 79 75 36 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS