* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 44 48 59 69 83 92 93 86 82 79 82 83 85 85 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 44 48 59 69 83 77 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 42 49 58 70 71 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 12 9 7 8 7 8 6 6 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 264 261 252 279 103 151 98 91 57 25 33 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.3 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 152 149 153 156 147 152 152 146 146 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 147 145 143 149 151 141 145 145 139 139 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 66 69 68 66 69 72 75 76 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 22 24 29 31 28 22 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 72 69 73 67 77 91 103 132 152 161 132 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 55 102 104 82 119 110 75 77 79 54 57 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 1 0 2 0 -3 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 281 296 329 373 420 312 140 -22 -116 -130 -144 -98 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.0 75.5 76.1 76.8 78.5 80.3 81.9 83.4 84.7 86.2 87.7 89.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 51 50 52 56 53 44 26 32 8 30 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 18. 14. 4. -3. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 24. 34. 48. 57. 58. 51. 47. 44. 47. 48. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 74.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.4% 11.4% 7.2% 6.6% 10.3% 20.4% 47.9% Logistic: 7.1% 36.4% 17.2% 7.3% 3.6% 19.9% 30.5% 53.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 14.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 3.4% 18.6% 41.1% Consensus: 4.8% 23.5% 10.4% 5.0% 3.5% 11.2% 23.2% 47.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 41 44 48 59 69 83 77 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 45 56 66 80 74 44 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 49 59 73 67 37 23 19 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 40 50 64 58 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT