* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 44 44 44 45 39 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 44 44 44 45 39 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 40 39 40 41 38 34 30 28 28 31 33 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 49 41 32 34 29 23 31 36 33 22 11 10 29 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -3 -4 -2 -5 -4 -4 -1 -3 -3 -4 1 -3 1 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 242 252 250 255 283 305 359 23 5 359 332 235 210 208 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.8 21.4 19.3 17.9 16.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 93 91 90 90 87 86 84 82 84 84 80 77 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 84 82 81 80 80 77 75 73 72 74 76 74 72 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.7 -56.4 -56.9 -57.4 -58.1 -58.2 -57.7 -57.4 -57.7 -57.6 -57.8 -57.6 -57.5 -56.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 44 42 41 41 44 46 48 46 39 35 40 49 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 27 26 26 26 23 20 15 12 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 36 35 35 28 4 -18 -16 -15 -58 -95 -66 -14 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 35 27 54 50 24 50 -38 -31 -34 -18 0 33 48 44 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -14 -14 -15 1 0 6 -4 -1 5 -7 2 -10 26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1783 1703 1623 1538 1454 1274 1125 1006 928 889 885 906 720 445 224 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.1 31.3 31.7 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.6 33.3 34.6 37.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.4 31.3 30.3 29.2 28.1 25.8 23.8 22.2 21.2 20.5 19.8 19.0 17.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 6 11 18 21 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -14. -19. -23. -25. -25. -24. -26. -32. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -20. -26. -31. -34. -33. -34. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -11. -21. -32. -40. -45. -46. -47. -55. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 30.3 32.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.1 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 44 44 44 44 45 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 46 46 46 46 47 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 46 47 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 41 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT