* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 57 53 44 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 57 53 44 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 60 56 47 35 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 12 17 22 34 40 47 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 9 12 13 10 11 13 13 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 305 310 287 290 270 281 287 269 259 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.3 23.8 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 125 122 115 95 85 85 84 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 115 109 105 99 83 75 74 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 6 3 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 56 52 42 30 25 25 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 20 18 14 9 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 51 40 38 28 25 -13 -32 -96 -112 -126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -21 15 0 -12 6 -30 -50 -14 26 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 1 6 9 11 0 -5 0 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 246 186 138 95 36 -45 -76 -54 -55 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.5 29.5 30.2 30.7 30.9 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.1 83.9 83.8 83.6 83.1 82.6 82.2 82.1 82.1 82.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 26 12 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 28/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -24. -25. -26. -28. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -22. -30. -33. -35. -36. -36. -35. -34. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -7. -16. -30. -43. -58. -66. -72. -73. -74. -75. -74. -72. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.5 84.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 13.8% 9.5% 7.0% 5.9% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.5% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 57 53 44 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 55 51 42 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 48 39 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 37 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT