* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 55 47 37 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 55 47 37 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 58 55 49 42 35 29 24 20 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 17 18 17 14 20 30 38 32 35 46 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 8 13 11 11 14 6 10 9 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 309 308 317 299 286 280 288 270 262 248 262 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.2 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.0 22.5 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 135 130 124 117 104 94 93 91 88 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 118 114 108 100 89 81 79 78 76 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 2 2 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 55 57 57 49 34 25 21 19 21 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 22 20 16 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 55 39 33 24 9 -21 -55 -120 -127 -145 -123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -2 -16 6 -2 -17 -10 -65 -55 3 0 -24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 7 9 -1 3 10 0 -7 -13 4 -3 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 178 240 251 201 124 90 63 54 52 14 -38 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.5 26.2 27.4 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 84.5 84.4 84.3 84.2 84.0 83.7 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.3 84.4 84.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 105 76 46 23 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -29. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -23. -29. -34. -35. -35. -34. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -18. -31. -39. -47. -56. -59. -62. -61. -60. -58. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.5 84.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 16.9% 11.0% 8.4% 7.5% 9.3% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 4.6% 2.7% 2.1% 0.9% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 3.9% 2.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 58 55 47 37 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 52 44 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 48 40 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT