* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 53 56 55 57 52 48 43 38 29 23 21 18 18 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 53 56 55 57 52 48 43 38 29 23 21 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 49 50 53 55 54 52 48 43 37 30 27 25 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 6 10 13 11 18 12 19 24 29 31 33 35 24 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 0 1 5 8 13 9 8 3 2 1 4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 306 324 323 328 331 311 298 277 275 269 295 279 277 270 272 256 253 SST (C) 27.2 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 24.0 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 135 142 142 141 138 127 121 119 116 112 95 85 84 84 84 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 119 124 122 120 118 109 104 100 98 95 82 74 72 72 72 72 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 3 1 4 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 56 57 57 56 50 43 40 40 36 39 34 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 23 23 25 22 24 23 21 19 16 13 10 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 140 152 124 100 86 76 42 26 20 10 -16 -36 -60 -62 -61 -64 -22 200 MB DIV 1 -12 -26 -15 -8 17 -12 6 -4 -26 -59 -32 3 49 44 57 2 700-850 TADV -6 -4 3 1 1 0 11 5 10 0 5 5 9 16 12 3 1 LAND (KM) 163 212 208 212 222 270 347 284 234 192 156 70 21 21 21 21 21 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.8 84.6 85.0 85.3 85.5 85.5 85.3 85.1 84.8 84.4 84.0 83.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 3 2 4 5 4 3 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 16 34 89 79 55 35 13 12 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -25. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 7. 2. -2. -7. -12. -21. -27. -29. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.0 82.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.0% 9.3% 7.3% 6.5% 9.1% 10.2% 8.5% Logistic: 0.9% 3.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 50 51 53 56 55 57 52 48 43 38 29 23 21 18 18 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 53 56 55 57 52 48 43 38 29 23 21 18 18 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 49 52 51 53 48 44 39 34 25 19 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 45 44 46 41 37 32 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT