* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 68 74 81 80 75 71 63 58 48 42 32 25 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 55 56 62 68 67 53 49 41 36 27 20 N/A 16 23 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 58 63 50 58 62 62 51 54 58 59 57 52 46 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 33 28 19 20 9 11 9 13 6 14 21 33 37 46 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 0 0 -3 -5 3 -3 2 3 7 2 4 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 241 234 247 257 247 247 318 324 323 282 309 265 247 272 285 275 266 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.4 26.3 25.7 26.5 26.8 26.4 24.9 23.5 22.4 22.2 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 155 156 152 141 115 109 115 118 115 102 91 85 85 88 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 149 143 141 135 123 101 95 98 100 98 88 79 75 74 76 76 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 6 7 3 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 71 71 66 69 68 65 57 52 47 46 42 45 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 27 26 28 31 28 27 26 24 24 21 20 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 133 157 161 174 193 174 163 128 128 68 38 8 15 -12 -8 -20 -63 200 MB DIV 142 113 107 89 128 62 24 -2 25 0 31 2 6 -10 -23 -15 39 700-850 TADV 13 8 22 16 12 9 5 5 0 4 -2 4 4 4 -3 4 30 LAND (KM) 221 107 -4 6 90 165 1 8 74 89 81 46 59 11 -32 -105 -116 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.1 24.4 25.4 26.0 26.3 26.5 27.0 28.0 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.3 79.4 79.1 78.8 79.1 80.3 81.8 82.7 83.1 83.3 83.3 83.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 6 7 6 3 2 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 91 81 41 38 37 30 4 5 22 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 16 CX,CY: 13/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -8. -10. -14. -18. -20. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 18. 24. 31. 30. 25. 21. 13. 8. -2. -8. -18. -25. -30. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.0 81.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 13.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.10 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.67 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 50.6% 34.9% 21.4% 10.1% 15.4% 18.1% 12.6% Logistic: 19.3% 30.8% 16.4% 5.1% 1.5% 3.6% 1.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 8.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.8% 27.6% 17.2% 8.8% 3.9% 6.3% 6.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 55 56 62 68 67 53 49 41 36 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 48 54 60 59 45 41 33 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 53 59 58 44 40 32 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 52 51 37 33 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT