* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 42 50 56 57 57 54 49 44 38 31 27 26 23 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 34 43 49 46 46 44 39 34 27 21 17 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 29 32 32 31 32 34 35 34 32 29 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 29 33 28 26 7 5 12 4 11 13 24 31 30 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 9 4 2 1 -3 0 0 6 9 8 8 0 -1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 240 238 240 257 257 216 295 14 321 297 306 288 284 275 279 265 253 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.8 27.6 25.4 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 159 156 147 130 107 120 121 118 115 112 111 109 104 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 152 147 142 130 114 95 103 102 100 97 94 93 92 88 83 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 3 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 68 68 65 64 61 57 52 44 37 30 23 21 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 24 24 26 28 31 31 28 26 23 20 17 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 125 156 157 173 198 168 169 131 94 33 35 18 -2 -53 -95 -135 200 MB DIV 91 138 117 85 96 75 44 6 -14 1 -22 -7 -52 -32 -42 -24 -15 700-850 TADV 5 14 17 29 22 4 7 4 0 1 3 4 2 -12 -13 -22 0 LAND (KM) 307 246 156 46 -30 118 76 15 89 121 121 111 113 136 145 97 61 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.7 24.9 25.7 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.5 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 82.1 81.0 80.3 79.6 79.3 79.8 81.4 82.8 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 6 7 8 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 71 87 91 68 39 33 25 0 20 12 8 4 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 0. -5. -10. -16. -19. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 26. 27. 27. 24. 19. 14. 8. 1. -3. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 83.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.4% 9.2% 5.6% 5.0% 7.1% 8.6% 11.2% Logistic: 3.4% 6.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.2% 3.8% 2.1% 1.7% 2.7% 3.2% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 34 43 49 46 46 44 39 34 27 21 17 16 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 31 40 46 43 43 41 36 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 26 35 41 38 38 36 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 26 32 29 29 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT