* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 58 58 60 64 65 66 69 76 79 86 88 82 73 71 72 V (KT) LAND 70 51 41 35 31 28 28 33 36 42 46 45 46 40 31 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 51 40 34 31 28 31 37 42 45 45 40 39 36 37 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 8 6 5 10 15 23 27 30 17 17 16 14 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 3 3 2 0 8 6 7 8 3 0 -4 5 1 2 SHEAR DIR 65 49 50 93 86 139 198 237 251 257 252 245 287 342 340 353 291 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 154 152 157 151 155 157 157 152 152 138 134 136 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 153 149 146 147 140 147 151 148 140 135 120 116 118 118 114 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 6 6 7 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 82 81 79 79 76 74 69 61 55 55 55 54 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 20 18 17 14 15 17 19 23 26 28 29 25 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 129 139 147 159 155 130 111 135 131 150 179 177 157 158 109 71 21 200 MB DIV 132 128 161 168 125 88 101 126 94 65 60 47 34 -21 -32 -3 -13 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 7 2 0 0 4 5 5 15 9 11 1 2 0 1 LAND (KM) -87 -162 -191 -143 -105 -15 -14 74 194 188 45 37 85 92 168 255 357 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.7 20.2 21.8 23.4 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.0 85.7 86.4 87.2 88.5 88.7 87.5 85.7 83.6 82.1 81.1 81.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 6 5 9 12 11 10 7 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 5 8 30 38 41 41 60 77 88 77 61 34 27 27 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -10. -13. -13. -11. -6. -5. -5. -4. -1. 1. 4. 3. -0. -4. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -7. -11. -14. -14. -13. -9. -6. -4. -3. -9. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -12. -10. -6. -5. -4. -1. 6. 9. 16. 18. 12. 3. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.8 84.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 2.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 14.0% 62.7% 15.0% 6.7% 5.7% 33.0% 20.6% 74.3% Consensus: 4.7% 21.5% 5.1% 2.4% 2.1% 13.9% 7.6% 25.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 51 41 35 31 28 28 33 36 42 46 45 46 40 31 29 31 18HR AGO 70 69 59 53 49 46 46 51 54 60 64 63 64 58 49 47 49 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 56 53 53 58 61 67 71 70 71 65 56 54 56 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 53 53 58 61 67 71 70 71 65 56 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT