* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 135 132 127 120 110 101 94 83 71 62 60 64 69 72 74 74 V (KT) LAND 130 135 132 91 66 40 31 28 29 18 N/A N/A N/A 15 19 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 130 136 133 93 67 39 30 28 27 33 36 38 41 43 46 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 14 14 14 9 6 9 14 14 12 11 13 12 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 2 -1 4 4 4 0 -1 0 4 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 126 110 91 84 85 63 113 131 143 187 219 240 250 237 264 301 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 161 163 164 157 153 154 150 154 160 162 160 159 159 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 148 151 153 155 150 145 141 137 142 149 150 147 144 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 3 3 3 4 3 6 5 8 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 81 81 82 77 82 78 77 69 64 58 61 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 25 22 19 15 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 122 119 116 120 120 147 130 121 109 112 110 116 121 144 150 163 200 MB DIV 151 155 176 155 153 102 120 60 66 87 93 62 62 33 47 24 23 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 1 2 0 10 7 5 0 -1 -1 -2 -6 -7 -8 -12 LAND (KM) 75 28 0 -28 -65 -162 -152 -91 6 43 75 153 235 266 312 365 354 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.0 83.4 83.8 84.1 85.0 86.2 87.5 88.1 88.1 87.5 86.5 85.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 3 3 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 36 38 38 5 31 38 39 41 58 84 79 70 64 69 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -5. -13. -24. -33. -41. -47. -50. -52. -55. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -10. -4. 0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 2. 3. 0. -1. -6. -8. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -20. -26. -31. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 2. -3. -10. -20. -28. -36. -47. -59. -67. -70. -66. -61. -58. -56. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.3 82.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.0% 56.1% 29.4% 32.8% 25.5% 27.9% 28.2% 17.5% Bayesian: 15.6% 9.9% 4.4% 0.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.2% 22.0% 11.3% 11.2% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 0( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 77 0( 77) 0( 77) 0( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 135 132 91 66 40 31 28 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 126 85 60 34 25 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 85 60 34 25 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 95 69 60 57 58 47 29 29 29 44 48 50 50 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 85 76 73 74 63 45 45 45 60 64 66 66 IN 6HR 130 135 126 120 117 107 98 95 96 85 67 67 67 82 86 88 88 IN 12HR 130 135 132 123 117 113 104 101 102 91 73 73 73 88 92 94 94