* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYNIN AL292020 11/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 60 72 82 89 89 85 83 82 83 85 87 89 89 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 60 72 82 89 71 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 69 80 87 74 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 6 5 8 10 15 15 17 10 10 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 1 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 226 231 185 177 161 139 99 80 51 60 92 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 161 162 158 159 158 161 167 163 161 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 157 155 159 159 152 151 149 152 159 154 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 81 83 85 87 85 83 82 82 80 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 19 21 23 22 19 18 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 95 91 95 102 117 147 138 141 153 179 187 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 49 57 91 120 140 169 211 205 138 97 64 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -1 0 5 3 1 0 -3 2 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 338 300 281 302 269 118 39 -22 -119 -206 -192 -155 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.1 14.6 14.0 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.8 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.5 75.0 76.4 77.6 78.8 80.7 82.1 82.9 83.7 84.6 85.4 86.1 86.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 80 82 76 61 49 40 42 42 9 16 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 13. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 38. 47. 54. 54. 50. 48. 47. 48. 50. 52. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 73.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 TWENTYNIN 11/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 4.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 49.7% 36.3% 23.0% 15.4% 28.2% 31.0% 53.2% Logistic: 9.5% 63.5% 40.1% 24.8% 15.4% 43.8% 63.0% 87.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 40.4% 13.4% 2.4% 1.9% 16.8% 32.9% 92.4% Consensus: 9.4% 51.2% 30.0% 16.7% 10.9% 29.6% 42.3% 77.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 TWENTYNIN 11/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 TWENTYNIN 11/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 53 60 72 82 89 71 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 40 47 54 66 76 83 65 37 26 22 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 38 45 57 67 74 56 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 44 54 61 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT