* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 82 80 74 58 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 84 79 53 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 84 71 55 42 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 19 30 41 73 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 9 11 11 9 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 236 238 257 258 248 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.2 24.4 25.1 23.1 18.9 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 106 113 101 85 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 114 102 111 99 82 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 54 53 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 20 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 18 33 55 98 77 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 90 111 141 164 79 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 32 58 114 105 38 -284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 115 1 -236 -351 92 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 28.1 30.2 32.5 34.8 38.7 42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 90.6 89.5 86.5 83.5 73.8 64.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 28 34 39 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -19. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38. -41. -43. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -7. -17. -36. -41. -45. -47. -49. -51. -54. -57. -59. -62. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. 0. -6. -22. -50. -59. -67. -74. -80. -86. -90. -92. -92. -94.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.0 91.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 17.9% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.4% 7.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.3% 8.4% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/28/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 79 53 42 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 74 48 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 50 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 59 50 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 63 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT