* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 79 77 67 46 40 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 78 54 35 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 81 78 55 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 15 20 31 57 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 9 10 13 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 233 236 251 256 244 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 26.7 26.3 24.7 25.0 20.3 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 124 121 108 112 88 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 115 114 103 109 85 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 63 59 55 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 21 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 17 42 88 120 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 56 86 112 135 116 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 23 37 66 117 84 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 397 333 137 30 -194 -278 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 26.2 27.9 30.1 32.3 37.0 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.1 90.8 89.0 87.1 79.6 72.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 22 27 33 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -28. -33. -37. -39. -41. -44. -46. -49. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 4. 2. -8. -29. -35. -42. -50. -56. -62. -67. -69. -70. -72. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.4 91.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.9% 24.3% 18.7% 9.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 11.3% 5.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 24.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.3% 12.0% 8.0% 3.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/28/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 81 78 54 35 29 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 73 49 30 24 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 44 25 19 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 41 22 16 17 17 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT