* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 83 84 86 83 77 64 51 34 30 26 22 21 19 15 V (KT) LAND 70 75 65 52 59 61 58 46 33 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 76 70 54 62 69 71 57 36 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 7 4 9 14 26 39 93 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -5 -3 4 5 11 13 -6 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 337 315 336 334 256 264 261 262 233 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.6 28.4 28.0 26.7 25.1 23.1 20.2 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 157 146 143 138 123 111 99 86 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 156 149 137 133 126 114 104 94 82 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 66 67 66 62 57 55 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 20 22 21 19 14 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 44 31 30 20 0 5 94 142 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 40 27 8 18 53 63 113 188 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 2 5 -5 -5 9 39 73 164 -179 -278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 194 80 -38 -5 109 382 214 -37 -308 -67 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.2 24.4 27.2 30.8 34.5 38.0 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.6 87.6 88.6 89.6 91.0 90.8 88.4 83.2 76.3 69.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 17 25 31 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 108 67 39 36 21 34 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. -0. -9. -26. -28. -30. -33. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -14. -14. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 13. 7. -6. -19. -36. -40. -44. -48. -49. -51. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.3 85.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.81 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.7% 44.7% 35.7% 27.0% 20.0% 23.2% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 18.4% 48.7% 33.3% 20.5% 15.2% 32.8% 19.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 21.5% 61.4% 25.0% 16.3% 4.6% 12.9% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 23.2% 51.6% 31.3% 21.3% 13.2% 22.9% 12.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/26/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 0( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 65 52 59 61 58 46 33 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 59 46 53 55 52 40 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 53 60 62 59 47 34 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 67 69 66 54 41 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT