* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 66 74 78 76 68 56 54 52 51 52 52 51 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 66 58 61 59 51 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 51 59 52 58 60 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 3 3 6 7 8 16 24 39 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 2 -1 0 4 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 1 35 355 359 318 305 262 262 228 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.7 28.5 28.0 27.0 25.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 166 169 164 145 138 126 107 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 151 152 157 154 136 127 116 97 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 6 8 6 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 62 60 59 58 55 58 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 18 19 18 18 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 76 76 60 47 35 12 22 50 126 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 51 53 60 41 20 24 47 53 78 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 1 13 36 21 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 226 256 285 291 238 57 49 325 245 0 -307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.2 20.3 21.9 24.1 26.9 30.2 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.0 84.3 84.7 85.2 86.7 88.6 90.1 90.3 89.6 88.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 8 10 13 13 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 72 81 97 112 61 30 20 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. -0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 31. 39. 43. 41. 33. 21. 19. 17. 16. 17. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 83.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.53 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 34.2% 22.3% 8.8% 8.2% 18.6% 26.3% 25.8% Logistic: 11.2% 22.4% 20.6% 10.9% 1.4% 8.1% 14.8% 4.8% Bayesian: 5.7% 12.4% 11.7% 7.6% 4.5% 5.8% 4.8% 0.5% Consensus: 8.2% 23.0% 18.2% 9.1% 4.7% 10.8% 15.3% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 58 66 58 61 59 51 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 60 52 55 53 45 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 51 43 46 44 36 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 39 31 34 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT