* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 67 67 64 56 51 57 56 55 53 50 46 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 67 67 64 56 51 57 56 55 53 50 46 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 65 63 57 52 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 13 10 13 22 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 2 3 2 2 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 169 148 155 189 174 219 225 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 25.3 22.5 24.5 13.9 16.8 12.3 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 110 92 106 75 80 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 95 83 95 73 77 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.7 -56.1 -54.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.0 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 53 57 56 58 61 60 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 42 44 43 43 40 36 36 43 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 60 82 86 62 136 148 229 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 87 107 106 84 97 94 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 2 -6 -4 -12 -20 -9 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 885 800 728 683 629 399 941 1319 627 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 37.1 38.1 39.4 40.6 43.9 47.9 52.0 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.0 61.3 60.6 58.6 56.7 49.9 40.2 29.6 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 16 20 25 35 40 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38. -42. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -8. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -14. -19. -13. -14. -15. -17. -20. -24. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 36.0 62.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 69 67 67 64 56 51 57 56 55 53 50 46 42 40 38 18HR AGO 70 69 69 67 67 64 56 51 57 56 55 53 50 46 42 40 38 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 64 61 53 48 54 53 52 50 47 43 39 37 35 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 57 49 44 50 49 48 46 43 39 35 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT