* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 74 74 74 77 78 77 74 68 60 70 56 51 46 42 41 V (KT) LAND 80 76 74 74 74 77 78 77 74 68 60 70 56 51 46 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 72 72 73 76 76 70 63 58 61 60 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 15 14 21 19 6 8 19 43 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 3 0 2 5 9 23 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 233 196 198 186 177 157 200 193 212 209 147 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.0 24.9 14.1 17.3 11.2 10.8 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 112 111 110 113 116 109 75 80 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 95 95 95 94 96 100 99 72 76 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -55.4 -55.4 -51.5 -48.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 -0.3 4.1 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 49 49 50 50 50 54 56 58 56 47 59 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 36 38 38 41 44 43 41 39 37 50 44 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 149 123 115 100 93 85 76 78 144 183 355 435 410 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 19 28 22 47 99 84 75 97 117 125 66 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 3 4 4 0 29 4 20 -100 101 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1429 1389 1318 1235 1154 965 809 690 444 877 1457 1086 882 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.3 31.9 32.7 33.5 35.3 37.3 39.9 43.4 47.5 52.1 57.1 62.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 61.4 61.6 61.8 61.9 61.8 60.5 56.8 49.9 41.1 33.2 26.3 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 10 15 25 34 36 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -27. -34. -39. -44. -49. -52. -54. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 1. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. 14. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -10. -24. -29. -34. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.6 61.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 6( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 74 74 74 77 78 77 74 68 60 70 56 51 46 42 41 18HR AGO 80 79 77 77 77 80 81 80 77 71 63 73 59 54 49 45 44 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 76 79 80 79 76 70 62 72 58 53 48 44 43 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 73 74 73 70 64 56 66 52 47 42 38 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT