* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 88 85 84 86 85 83 79 67 60 60 55 51 47 45 44 V (KT) LAND 95 91 88 85 84 86 85 83 79 67 60 60 55 51 47 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 95 91 88 86 85 83 82 76 68 57 56 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 13 13 16 20 11 10 26 40 57 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 3 0 3 3 7 15 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 306 281 239 206 200 180 169 152 210 208 215 174 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.5 26.5 24.3 20.9 15.7 15.6 11.1 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 111 110 111 109 119 103 88 77 77 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 95 94 94 92 101 92 82 74 74 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.7 -55.2 -53.2 -49.2 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.3 3.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 52 50 53 53 53 56 51 41 45 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 35 36 37 42 43 45 43 38 37 41 42 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 158 144 122 111 95 93 79 96 113 152 313 444 399 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 12 15 38 25 93 88 102 65 90 111 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 5 3 4 8 9 2 18 -3 30 -107 -127 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1435 1440 1366 1295 1224 1050 880 767 578 584 1119 1243 829 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.0 31.6 32.3 32.9 34.5 36.3 38.5 41.5 45.1 49.3 54.0 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.5 60.8 61.2 61.4 61.6 61.8 61.2 58.9 53.5 45.9 37.7 29.0 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 9 12 20 29 34 36 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -22. -31. -40. -50. -56. -62. -68. -71. -73. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 1. 0. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 9. 7. -1. -3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -11. -9. -10. -12. -16. -28. -35. -35. -40. -44. -48. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 30.4 60.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 594.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 9( 33) 10( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 91 88 85 84 86 85 83 79 67 60 60 55 51 47 45 44 18HR AGO 95 94 91 88 87 89 88 86 82 70 63 63 58 54 50 48 47 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 87 89 88 86 82 70 63 63 58 54 50 48 47 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 86 85 83 79 67 60 60 55 51 47 45 44 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 77 75 71 59 52 52 47 43 39 37 36 IN 6HR 95 91 82 76 73 73 72 70 66 54 47 47 42 38 34 32 31 IN 12HR 95 91 88 79 73 69 68 66 62 50 43 43 38 34 30 28 27