* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 62 68 73 76 81 81 82 84 84 78 72 54 34 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 62 68 73 76 81 81 82 84 84 78 72 54 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 58 65 69 73 75 76 76 75 72 64 57 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 13 14 8 8 10 12 11 18 20 9 7 15 13 42 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -1 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -3 6 10 2 15 SHEAR DIR 212 208 187 189 166 331 302 235 192 200 152 162 207 218 212 191 219 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.5 25.3 24.7 20.9 19.9 16.4 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 131 131 132 120 116 116 114 114 110 110 107 89 87 79 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 115 114 114 114 103 99 98 96 96 94 96 96 83 83 76 74 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.7 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -56.4 -56.3 -57.0 -56.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 48 50 45 50 49 46 47 52 55 58 66 57 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 31 31 31 31 31 33 34 35 38 38 37 34 22 12 850 MB ENV VOR 164 164 165 167 174 164 160 121 111 107 96 72 77 90 119 89 56 200 MB DIV 70 81 71 73 59 7 29 37 76 55 49 78 83 84 82 30 0 700-850 TADV 16 28 22 25 12 0 12 6 2 3 0 -3 10 -42 -65 -312 -328 LAND (KM) 1413 1404 1402 1384 1374 1363 1424 1458 1340 1218 1079 969 834 688 1092 1402 535 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.9 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.1 34.7 36.8 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.3 55.9 56.7 57.5 58.9 59.8 60.5 60.9 61.1 60.2 58.1 54.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 11 16 23 30 38 40 38 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 17 13 16 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -2. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 7. 4. -1. -14. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 28. 31. 36. 36. 37. 39. 39. 33. 27. 9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.9 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 20.1% 11.7% 7.7% 6.8% 10.2% 13.4% 14.2% Logistic: 4.0% 15.6% 13.4% 3.0% 0.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 12.1% 8.4% 3.6% 2.4% 4.1% 4.6% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 58 62 68 73 76 81 81 82 84 84 78 72 54 34 18HR AGO 45 44 48 53 57 63 68 71 76 76 77 79 79 73 67 49 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 56 61 64 69 69 70 72 72 66 60 42 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 50 53 58 58 59 61 61 55 49 31 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT