* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 97 86 75 57 37 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 102 97 77 59 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 94 83 58 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 26 36 35 34 33 39 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 12 2 1 0 3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 246 239 251 261 257 273 280 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.2 24.8 23.9 24.7 24.0 24.3 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 127 104 97 103 98 100 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 113 93 86 90 85 86 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.3 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 4 6 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 48 42 39 40 45 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 30 28 24 18 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 21 1 -2 47 -30 -3 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 38 49 28 21 42 6 10 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 16 19 14 16 15 12 29 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 244 139 4 -115 -260 -395 -540 -711 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.4 28.5 29.7 30.8 32.6 34.1 35.6 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 93.5 93.3 92.8 92.4 91.1 89.4 87.8 86.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -26. -38. -50. -59. -65. -69. -72. -76. -78. -79. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -24. -26. -26. -27. -24. -21. -20. -18. -15. -14. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -26. -36. -38. -40. -41. -40. -39. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -19. -30. -48. -68. -87.-107.-114.-117.-119.-119.-116.-114.-114.-118. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.3 93.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 726.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 20( 42) 0( 42) 0( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 102 97 77 59 37 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 99 79 61 39 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 81 63 41 34 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 77 55 48 46 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 64 57 55 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 IN 6HR 105 102 93 87 84 75 68 66 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 IN 12HR 105 102 97 88 82 78 71 69 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41