* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 92 95 94 89 73 57 40 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 89 92 95 94 89 53 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 89 92 92 90 79 49 33 29 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 13 17 26 32 31 36 41 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 11 11 10 3 -1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 192 196 219 239 240 260 260 274 274 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.0 24.0 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 150 144 138 125 99 99 98 97 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 136 128 122 111 88 87 86 84 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 5 5 3 5 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 61 58 50 41 45 44 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 33 35 34 36 30 24 18 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 24 22 8 20 -9 40 -20 -2 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 25 45 47 38 25 29 37 17 8 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 4 13 20 17 27 17 21 26 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 250 365 452 397 317 117 -144 -317 -477 -679 -694 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.6 26.5 28.7 31.1 33.2 35.0 36.7 38.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.1 92.9 93.3 93.6 93.3 92.3 90.7 88.7 86.4 84.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 12 13 12 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 52 55 42 22 11 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -35. -38. -41. -43. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. -1. -9. -18. -29. -38. -39. -39. -37. -36. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 9. 4. -12. -28. -45. -64. -81. -85. -87. -86. -86. -86. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 23.0 91.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.6% 27.7% 23.1% 21.6% 12.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 30.3% 24.6% 19.0% 24.0% 16.8% 7.1% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 19.7% 23.5% 17.7% 15.6% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.2% 25.2% 19.9% 20.4% 11.3% 5.7% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 13( 22) 16( 34) 11( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 7( 14) 1( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 92 95 94 89 53 35 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 87 90 89 84 48 30 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 84 83 78 42 24 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 69 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 67 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 89 92 83 77 73 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS