* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 87 90 92 90 82 68 50 35 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 87 90 92 90 69 41 31 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 82 84 87 88 82 60 38 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 11 11 19 29 28 33 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 8 10 10 9 1 1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 157 186 203 199 219 243 245 266 264 274 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.4 24.1 24.7 24.0 24.3 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 148 152 149 143 129 99 104 99 101 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 136 138 134 127 115 89 91 87 88 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.3 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 7 7 4 5 2 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 67 62 55 46 45 46 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 32 34 35 35 35 31 22 16 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 23 16 19 22 -3 9 46 7 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 35 32 43 38 22 28 33 21 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 6 12 15 19 21 22 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 136 246 367 464 391 224 -51 -251 -416 -592 -653 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.7 25.6 27.7 30.1 32.4 34.3 36.0 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 91.2 92.2 92.7 93.3 93.3 92.6 91.4 89.4 87.0 84.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 11 13 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 34 55 58 42 13 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -12. -21. -32. -33. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 12. 10. 2. -12. -30. -45. -61. -63. -66. -68. -69. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.3 90.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 25.9% 19.7% 16.6% 12.2% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.2% 24.9% 18.2% 18.9% 15.1% 6.8% 1.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.1% 16.5% 7.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 22.4% 15.3% 13.0% 9.5% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 13( 27) 12( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 6( 12) 9( 20) 0( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 87 90 92 90 69 41 31 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 84 87 89 87 66 38 28 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 79 81 79 58 30 20 17 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 70 49 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 87 78 72 68 47 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS