* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 49 51 51 51 52 51 50 51 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 48 49 51 51 51 52 51 50 51 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 46 46 46 46 45 45 44 44 44 44 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 6 10 17 19 13 10 5 13 12 12 5 1 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 0 -4 -3 1 -1 3 0 0 -4 -3 -4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 232 218 208 149 131 152 148 161 153 91 124 139 143 185 169 295 162 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 157 158 159 160 157 154 150 148 145 145 145 141 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 52 53 52 55 55 55 58 58 57 53 52 51 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -15 -9 2 5 18 37 40 37 24 17 25 23 23 18 10 12 200 MB DIV 15 0 0 18 1 -19 -33 -25 14 31 47 67 9 -25 -26 -10 5 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 1 2 3 7 14 LAND (KM) 565 561 556 560 563 563 576 593 624 677 740 790 807 844 896 957 1031 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.9 106.9 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.2 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.8 111.8 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 17 14 13 12 14 15 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 25.5% 24.3% 18.5% 13.7% 19.1% 16.0% 15.2% Logistic: 3.6% 9.7% 7.0% 4.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 12.1% 10.5% 7.5% 5.1% 6.8% 5.5% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##