* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192020 10/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 43 49 54 57 57 57 57 59 61 62 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 38 43 49 54 57 57 57 57 59 61 62 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 35 38 41 43 45 46 48 51 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 7 4 2 9 9 10 7 8 5 6 12 13 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 4 7 0 0 -1 -1 1 4 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 307 319 306 291 240 94 90 103 101 112 130 184 107 102 118 106 116 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 161 159 158 155 154 156 157 156 156 156 156 154 153 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 58 59 58 55 56 63 65 65 62 62 60 58 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -60 -59 -51 -35 -13 -5 2 24 34 25 17 18 15 15 21 32 200 MB DIV 42 31 27 43 28 5 15 -9 -27 -21 8 26 46 54 30 -8 -23 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 616 598 581 587 594 624 628 613 603 615 613 606 605 622 661 720 763 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.8 106.1 106.3 106.5 106.7 106.6 106.5 106.5 106.7 107.1 107.8 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 2 1 0 1 0 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 24 24 23 21 21 19 18 17 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 27. 27. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 105.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NINETEEN 10/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.87 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 33.0% 24.0% 17.5% 0.0% 21.0% 26.0% 38.8% Logistic: 13.2% 53.1% 33.5% 24.0% 7.8% 41.0% 19.4% 31.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 8.3% 30.8% 19.4% 13.9% 2.6% 20.9% 15.3% 23.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NINETEEN 10/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##