* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 38 39 41 43 46 48 50 54 56 57 58 60 63 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 38 35 31 29 28 33 35 39 41 43 44 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 32 31 31 27 27 27 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 22 19 14 12 21 22 19 14 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 0 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 162 153 154 149 150 141 129 82 83 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.2 29.7 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 159 161 165 168 167 167 169 161 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 138 140 142 147 151 154 155 152 143 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 3 6 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 52 55 60 66 70 72 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 17 16 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 55 58 61 69 77 75 88 98 99 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 33 29 46 42 72 44 36 22 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 11 8 10 5 -3 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 89 72 57 41 -3 -19 -32 0 93 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.1 20.6 20.5 21.1 22.0 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.9 88.3 88.7 89.1 89.8 90.2 90.1 89.9 89.8 89.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 4 4 5 3 2 1 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 40 43 48 54 54 47 44 53 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.6 87.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.9% 9.7% 7.0% 6.6% 9.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.0% 4.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.3% 4.6% 2.6% 2.3% 3.3% 3.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 37 38 35 31 29 28 33 35 39 41 43 44 45 48 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 39 36 32 30 29 34 36 40 42 44 45 46 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 34 30 28 27 32 34 38 40 42 43 44 47 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 28 24 22 21 26 28 32 34 36 37 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT