* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 44 38 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 52 44 38 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 52 46 41 36 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 27 29 31 33 35 43 47 39 40 40 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 6 1 5 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 248 249 251 248 251 238 241 232 246 250 268 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.4 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.0 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.3 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 106 100 101 105 101 104 103 101 103 107 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 41 40 39 37 37 31 30 27 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 27 26 22 19 16 16 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 27 27 20 3 -20 -40 -23 -28 -25 -39 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 14 1 -11 -17 4 11 2 16 3 -27 -45 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 6 6 5 4 1 1 -5 1 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1712 1755 1800 1850 1873 1920 1963 1949 1875 1829 1750 1654 1556 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.7 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.5 131.2 131.9 132.6 134.1 135.4 136.4 137.2 137.7 138.5 139.5 140.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -20. -27. -34. -40. -44. -46. -48. -51. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -18. -22. -25. -27. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -28. -36. -45. -56. -63. -73. -82. -90. -95. -99.-102.-107.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.4 129.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 573.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##