* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 70 66 64 63 65 62 58 57 57 60 62 65 65 V (KT) LAND 60 49 42 46 46 41 39 39 40 37 33 32 32 35 37 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 48 41 44 45 44 43 43 44 45 46 47 47 48 51 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 24 20 21 23 29 20 15 14 22 22 23 16 16 14 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 2 -5 -4 -3 -1 -6 -6 -6 -3 -6 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 173 167 180 176 169 169 155 156 129 147 154 142 117 124 118 140 129 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 165 165 164 166 167 168 161 159 157 155 153 157 158 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 149 147 145 143 144 146 149 143 141 139 137 135 139 139 140 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 7 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 59 53 50 48 45 44 49 55 57 62 70 69 77 77 80 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 21 21 20 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 85 84 84 65 59 33 22 13 55 54 70 78 81 77 61 68 72 200 MB DIV 103 118 101 71 57 46 37 19 79 40 45 52 33 37 59 63 70 700-850 TADV 13 10 12 3 2 2 5 5 7 5 5 1 1 2 4 3 4 LAND (KM) -21 -67 -21 18 59 102 111 131 152 192 252 212 165 112 69 47 15 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.4 20.9 20.4 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.7 87.9 88.0 88.2 88.6 89.3 90.4 91.4 92.1 92.8 93.2 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 54 48 47 48 46 43 41 38 41 48 45 34 31 30 30 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -21. -24. -24. -24. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 10. 6. 4. 3. 5. 2. -2. -3. -3. -0. 2. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.4 87.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 13.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.28 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.7% 49.5% 36.0% 24.6% 16.8% 13.9% 12.0% 9.4% Logistic: 25.8% 32.9% 34.6% 22.7% 4.7% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 21.4% 15.1% 12.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.3% 32.5% 27.7% 16.2% 7.4% 5.6% 4.1% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 49 42 46 46 41 39 39 40 37 33 32 32 35 37 40 41 18HR AGO 60 59 52 56 56 51 49 49 50 47 43 42 42 45 47 50 51 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 60 55 53 53 54 51 47 46 46 49 51 54 55 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 45 43 43 44 41 37 36 36 39 41 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT