* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 115 111 106 91 76 65 55 44 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 115 111 106 91 76 65 55 44 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 113 110 104 97 82 68 57 46 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 1 4 9 19 21 25 29 37 39 46 44 43 42 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 1 2 3 3 3 4 7 8 3 12 0 -2 -3 5 10 SHEAR DIR 84 86 90 249 251 258 275 260 259 243 247 237 234 229 227 227 346 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.5 24.7 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 141 132 128 119 116 114 107 109 104 107 105 105 103 103 105 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 -53.4 -53.9 -52.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 63 57 55 50 44 41 40 39 37 35 35 29 29 35 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 36 35 34 32 30 27 24 20 16 14 12 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 110 96 86 80 76 73 58 36 33 6 6 0 0 43 90 133 200 MB DIV 83 97 52 15 0 19 15 13 1 -11 5 0 -19 22 36 55 -15 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 5 2 5 1 -2 -6 -8 -19 -16 LAND (KM) 1570 1598 1613 1626 1643 1672 1738 1836 1933 1979 2019 1953 1899 1905 1849 1635 1484 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.2 23.0 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.4 126.2 126.9 127.6 128.7 129.9 131.3 132.7 134.1 135.4 136.3 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -26. -36. -45. -53. -59. -64. -67. -70. -73. -77. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -20. -26. -30. -30. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -4. -9. -24. -39. -50. -60. -71. -84. -95.-106.-115.-123.-129.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.6 124.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 701.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 5.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 7.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##