* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFIV AL252020 10/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 51 59 61 62 61 61 62 65 65 62 59 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 37 42 43 44 43 44 45 47 47 44 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 36 38 33 35 34 33 33 34 37 40 42 41 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 18 18 22 20 26 18 12 8 14 14 22 19 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -1 0 2 1 -2 -3 -4 0 3 0 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 216 210 202 199 183 198 184 182 171 162 136 156 155 158 160 183 186 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 169 167 164 166 169 169 169 163 162 161 160 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 170 165 161 154 148 143 145 149 156 150 143 141 139 138 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 80 79 74 67 63 57 51 50 53 57 59 61 63 68 71 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 20 20 20 18 17 16 16 15 16 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 90 101 92 85 90 74 61 53 24 9 21 31 42 41 45 57 64 200 MB DIV 87 96 90 72 98 64 41 43 36 36 76 74 52 35 36 26 36 700-850 TADV 1 5 10 11 11 15 5 4 4 7 8 3 6 2 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 270 204 139 90 33 -41 27 56 65 74 106 188 245 271 278 278 276 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.1 22.0 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.6 86.1 86.5 86.9 87.3 87.6 88.0 88.8 89.9 91.0 92.0 92.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 116 140 129 96 71 51 45 45 49 48 44 53 59 53 49 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 29. 31. 32. 31. 31. 32. 35. 35. 32. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 85.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 TWENTYFIV 10/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 110.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.68 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.94 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 32.0% 17.6% 8.1% 7.8% 9.8% 12.6% 14.0% Logistic: 11.3% 39.2% 21.4% 6.8% 3.1% 4.6% 6.7% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 25.2% 13.5% 5.1% 3.7% 4.9% 6.5% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 TWENTYFIV 10/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 TWENTYFIV 10/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 44 37 42 43 44 43 44 45 47 47 44 41 40 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 34 39 40 41 40 41 42 44 44 41 38 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 28 33 34 35 34 35 36 38 38 35 32 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 18 23 24 25 24 25 26 28 28 25 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT