* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 111 111 112 105 93 81 69 57 44 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 108 111 111 112 105 93 81 69 57 44 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 108 109 109 108 99 86 72 60 48 39 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 4 5 14 22 24 32 35 42 46 47 36 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -6 -3 0 3 2 2 2 6 6 4 0 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 62 58 70 82 98 264 253 272 259 259 240 243 231 232 233 238 236 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 26.7 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.8 24.4 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 146 145 130 123 118 114 109 109 106 108 106 107 107 108 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -52.6 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 63 60 53 46 41 39 42 40 38 35 36 31 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 35 35 37 38 37 35 33 30 27 25 20 17 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 105 103 99 102 104 89 78 74 68 47 44 27 9 2 -12 4 49 200 MB DIV 96 55 32 43 60 13 22 3 15 1 -9 5 11 -1 12 8 41 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -6 -1 0 5 3 11 8 4 0 0 1 -3 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 1419 1467 1524 1574 1609 1650 1694 1762 1863 1949 1974 1994 1923 1867 1837 1856 1844 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.7 123.8 124.8 125.8 127.4 128.8 130.1 131.6 133.1 134.4 135.6 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 11 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -16. -25. -32. -39. -44. -49. -51. -54. -58. -61. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -18. -19. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 7. 0. -12. -24. -36. -48. -61. -73. -85. -95.-102.-109.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.4 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 23.6% 22.4% 17.7% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.8% 27.7% 17.4% 16.9% 14.9% 6.7% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 17.6% 13.4% 11.6% 9.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##