* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 106 110 114 116 110 98 85 71 58 45 32 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 98 106 110 114 116 110 98 85 71 58 45 32 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 100 106 109 111 109 101 89 75 62 51 41 33 26 21 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 8 6 3 7 15 23 24 32 35 45 51 47 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 3 0 3 4 7 6 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 51 66 77 86 101 292 268 282 262 251 228 229 231 234 233 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 26.6 25.6 25.6 24.7 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.2 24.1 23.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 147 146 142 129 118 118 109 110 106 107 104 103 99 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.5 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 66 65 56 49 41 39 39 40 40 42 44 41 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 35 35 38 40 39 38 37 34 32 30 26 24 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 94 99 110 109 107 101 103 91 82 72 50 43 27 17 6 40 77 200 MB DIV 67 91 87 47 32 45 6 16 -5 14 11 3 4 14 10 2 -7 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -9 -6 -4 0 0 6 4 9 11 5 4 3 -1 -2 -15 LAND (KM) 1290 1339 1400 1456 1521 1613 1669 1743 1825 1916 1929 1929 1886 1817 1722 1541 1410 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.6 18.7 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.7 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.4 121.7 122.9 124.1 126.2 128.0 129.6 131.0 132.4 133.6 134.7 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 14 13 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -34. -37. -41. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -23. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 20. 24. 26. 20. 8. -5. -19. -32. -45. -58. -69. -78. -88. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.5% 41.0% 32.0% 26.4% 18.6% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.9% 39.6% 27.0% 25.1% 18.0% 15.2% 5.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 51.2% 7.5% 4.3% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 45.9% 29.4% 21.1% 18.1% 12.8% 11.8% 1.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##