* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 83 91 100 111 115 110 100 84 75 61 48 35 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 74 83 91 100 111 115 110 100 84 75 61 48 35 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 73 81 88 94 104 107 103 92 79 68 56 44 33 24 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 6 1 6 12 20 21 33 39 45 47 48 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 1 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 6 9 2 -3 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 90 88 50 52 65 81 94 265 265 282 250 250 233 232 230 238 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.1 27.9 26.6 26.4 25.8 24.9 24.6 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 149 149 151 146 144 129 127 121 111 107 104 103 101 100 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 69 71 70 61 56 48 41 41 44 42 40 38 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 30 31 34 36 38 40 40 36 36 34 31 27 24 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 93 100 88 89 99 100 96 95 82 72 66 49 43 35 11 16 37 200 MB DIV 98 98 82 82 82 21 31 9 19 -9 27 12 2 -17 -15 -13 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -8 -9 -7 -5 0 2 2 -1 12 19 14 6 -3 -5 -12 LAND (KM) 1125 1198 1284 1348 1406 1507 1604 1665 1732 1806 1889 1935 1909 1856 1762 1633 1464 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.2 118.6 119.9 121.2 123.5 125.6 127.5 129.1 130.6 132.0 133.3 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 15 16 15 13 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 18. 20. 15. 15. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 21. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 26. 35. 46. 50. 45. 35. 19. 10. -4. -17. -30. -42. -55. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.5% 61.5% 50.0% 41.7% 28.0% 31.7% 21.0% 14.4% Logistic: 37.5% 55.3% 33.6% 32.1% 15.3% 29.4% 11.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 33.9% 30.7% 25.0% 18.4% 1.9% 11.4% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 39.3% 49.1% 36.2% 30.7% 15.1% 24.2% 11.1% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##