* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 76 87 97 106 119 124 120 110 99 84 73 59 47 36 24 15 V (KT) LAND 65 76 87 97 106 119 124 120 110 99 84 73 59 47 36 24 15 V (KT) LGEM 65 76 86 95 103 114 118 115 103 89 75 63 51 41 32 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 8 8 9 3 4 9 19 21 27 34 40 43 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 0 2 3 6 -2 -3 -10 SHEAR DIR 79 91 86 64 46 65 51 270 285 280 275 249 238 224 233 228 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.8 24.7 24.6 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 151 149 149 150 145 137 130 124 120 109 107 103 102 98 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 69 69 69 64 54 50 42 41 42 44 39 32 31 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 30 32 37 39 39 40 40 37 36 33 31 27 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 75 99 107 96 98 108 104 100 96 90 80 76 59 65 55 47 79 200 MB DIV 101 111 105 76 82 66 53 29 11 -1 11 13 9 7 -3 -4 -3 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -8 -7 -13 -4 -2 1 2 8 4 17 15 6 0 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 1072 1137 1218 1296 1372 1483 1592 1659 1706 1779 1854 1945 1937 1891 1781 1626 1481 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.9 117.3 118.7 120.0 122.5 124.7 126.6 128.2 129.8 131.2 132.6 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 14 15 16 15 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 22. 25. 25. 21. 19. 14. 9. 6. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 22. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 22. 32. 41. 54. 59. 55. 45. 34. 19. 8. -6. -18. -29. -41. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.2 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 11.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 14.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 11.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 13.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 10.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 63.9% 75.2% 67.2% 62.3% 48.7% 45.3% 31.2% 15.7% Logistic: 33.3% 53.5% 36.1% 32.9% 17.1% 26.4% 22.0% 4.1% Bayesian: 63.2% 45.1% 46.5% 34.5% 12.1% 11.1% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.5% 57.9% 49.9% 43.2% 25.9% 27.6% 18.1% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##