* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182020 09/29/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 51 60 79 93 102 108 107 105 98 86 78 68 59 51 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 51 60 79 93 102 108 107 105 98 86 78 68 59 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 47 62 79 94 101 100 92 79 65 54 46 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 10 8 7 7 2 2 6 10 14 20 21 31 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 3 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 7 3 2 0 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 38 54 52 43 60 102 76 141 176 197 231 227 244 237 243 233 249 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 26.3 25.5 25.1 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 156 154 149 149 147 143 126 118 113 105 100 99 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 73 73 74 72 73 73 67 62 58 53 49 49 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 18 25 29 33 36 37 39 39 36 34 31 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 54 64 72 87 76 85 75 69 47 45 40 35 47 64 52 200 MB DIV 116 113 120 108 102 125 70 78 49 65 22 31 7 10 0 12 8 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -10 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 2 7 8 12 5 13 16 LAND (KM) 749 780 825 906 989 1097 1244 1350 1447 1525 1573 1620 1689 1756 1777 1772 1781 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.1 110.1 111.5 112.8 115.8 118.5 121.0 123.2 125.2 126.9 128.4 129.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 16 15 16 20 17 15 14 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 17. 26. 34. 36. 38. 36. 28. 24. 19. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 30. 49. 63. 72. 78. 77. 75. 68. 56. 48. 38. 29. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 EIGHTEEN 09/29/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 36.9% 24.9% 18.5% 0.0% 29.0% 41.0% 58.1% Logistic: 9.6% 42.3% 28.2% 19.8% 4.5% 34.2% 27.4% 24.1% Bayesian: 6.2% 22.7% 20.8% 6.4% 0.5% 18.2% 14.5% 10.4% Consensus: 9.3% 33.9% 24.7% 14.9% 1.7% 27.1% 27.6% 30.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 EIGHTEEN 09/29/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##