* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 17 18 23 26 30 32 35 35 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 2 4 4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 262 245 238 235 253 272 289 289 274 270 290 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.2 23.9 24.2 23.8 24.4 24.3 24.6 25.2 25.5 25.5 26.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 102 105 101 108 107 109 116 118 118 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 42 41 40 35 33 33 32 33 31 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 16 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 27 30 33 18 18 11 12 7 -6 -27 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -4 -3 -14 -19 -19 -28 -20 -10 -1 -8 -9 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 4 5 -3 1 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1329 1428 1529 1651 1774 1964 1885 1616 1371 1137 950 784 640 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.6 128.7 130.0 131.3 134.0 136.8 139.4 141.8 144.1 146.0 147.8 149.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -18. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -18. -18. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -17. -24. -33. -40. -46. -50. -53. -56. -57. -61. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.8 126.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##